Toyota expects its sales to grow in 2024, but Australian new-car market to shrink

Toyota Australia predicts the Australian new-car market will contract in 2024 as it returns to “pre-COVID normal” – but the Japanese brand expects to sell more cars than it did last year.

Toyota Australia vice president for sales, marketing and franchise operations Sean Hanley said the brand anticipates the automotive industry will deliver around 1.05 to 1.1 million vehicles this year, down from the record-breaking 1.2 million cars sold in 2023.

“That's down on 2023 results of over 1.2 million market, but it's still an incredibly strong result. It wasn't that many years ago in Australia that if we did over a million, we thought it was incredibly strong. We're still over a million, so things are still going to be great,” said Hanley.

In 2023, Toyota retained its position as Australia’s top-selling brand for the 21st year straight, with 215,240 vehicles delivered to customers – marking the 19th time in the past 20 years that its sales have exceeded 200,000.

This result was more than double that of second-place Mazda, which sold 100,008 vehicles.

“When we reflect on 2023, it certainly for Toyota was a year of two halves. In the first half, we sold just 92,250 vehicles to the very supply production restricted period. But when you look at the second half of the year, it changed dramatically. We sold a record 123,005 vehicles,” said Hanley.

Hanley said the record second-half result was due to “greatly improved” supply and the health of Toyota’s order bank, which enabled it to reduce customer wait times.

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“Our Toyota forecast for the new year is our supply is strong, our demand is strong, our order banks healthy, particularly in the first quarter, we have strong supply of RAV4 Hybrid, and as a result, we expect to increase our sales volume in 2024,” said Hanley.

“This will see our market share also increase and we still aspire to get to that 20 per cent market share in 2024, all going to plan.”

While Toyota forecasts increased deliveries in 2024 compared to 2023, it is unlikely to beat its all-time sales record of 238,938 vehicles set in 2008.

In 2022, Toyota sold 231,050 vehicles in Australia – its third-highest result ever.

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“I don't think the market will be there to support an all-time sales record to be honest. I think that boat sailed in 2023. I think if we had the supply capability maybe in 2022-23 that could have happened because the market conditions were right,” said Hanley.

“Unfortunately, the supply versus the demand didn't line up for Toyota, so I don't think that we have the capability to do an all-time record in 2024, but we'll certainly have better growth in 2024 than what we saw in 2023. I think it'd be very healthy.”

A neck-and-neck race throughout 2023 between the Ranger and HiLux saw the Ford take the gold medal following strong sales in December – and the competition between the two utes is expected to remain fierce in 2024.

Despite losing its top-seller status, the HiLux remains successful around the country, selling over 60,000 units, and has been the top seller in the Northern Territory for the past 23 years, in Queensland for 17 years, in Western Australia for 16 years, and in South Australia for three years.

When asked if the HiLux could bounce back to become the number-one seller again in 2024, Hanley said that would be up to the market to decide.

“We'll certainly be working hard and having a good go with HiLux,” he said.

“Sixty-thousand sales is still good for HiLux. It's still an incredibly big part of our product line-up. We'll keep developing it, we'll keep enhancing it. Ultimately, the market will decide that.

“We'll always be out there having a go and offering the best we can to the market. I still believe that HiLux 4x4 is by far the best off-road capable vehicle in the Australian market, but that's a matter of opinion from a Toyota guy.”

Toyota Australia will launch several new vehicles this year, including the BZ4x electric SUV in February, the C-HR in March, the LandCruiser Prado in May or June, an updated HiLux with a 48-volt assist system in the first half, and the Camry in the second half.

The brand said it expects some supply challenges in switching to all-hybrid powertrains for the C-HR and Camry, with the first priority being to supply vehicles to customers already on the waiting list.

This includes the in-demand RAV4 Hybrid mid-size SUV, which should have its wait time halved from 12 to six months by mid-2024.