Volkswagen Australia says it will sell more EVs than ICE cars by 2028

Volkswagen has announced lofty electric vehicle sales targets, with 6500 the aim for 2024, before ramping up to 150,000 units delivered between 2025-2030.

That represents an average of 30,000 battery electric vehicle sales across those years. With the ID.4 and ID.5 expected to launch at price parity with Tiguan next year – not to mention supply improvements – Volkswagen could well meet its goals.

“By 2028 EVs will overtake ICE models in Australia… if there's any improvements or any advances on CO2 legislation or incentives to purchase EVs, this can absolutely be brought forward” general manager marketing and product at Volkswagen Australia, Ralph Beckmann, told WhichCar.

The ID.4 and ID.5 electric SUVs will be joined by the facelifted ID.3 small hatchback in late 2023/early 2024, and there’s plenty of volume potential for expansion in the brand’s ID.Buzz people mover and Cargo van products.

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How lofty is Volkswagen’s target?

The year of 2022 continued to be a heavily supply-constrained one for Volkswagen, which is on track to shift around 30,000 vehicles this calendar year.

Its biggest seller this year – the T-Cross light SUV (4897 sales) – is a slight surprise, though reflects model changeovers and supply struggles, outperforming the run-out Amarok ute (3948) thus far in 2022. VW currently sits in 11th place in the Australia marque sales tally for the year.

Compared to 2019 – the last full year before the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine wreaked havoc on global supply chains – Volkswagen is 40 per cent down on that year’s 49,928 figure.

For Volkswagen to hit its posted EV sales targets between 2025-2030, between 60-95 per cent of its volume will need to come from battery-electric vehicles, providing overall sales performance either remains steady or returns to 2019 levels.

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As for the 2024 target of 6500 electric vehicles, the ID.4 and ID.5 will be doing the heavy lifting. As of November 2022, the supply-constrained Tiguan and Tiguan Allspace medium SUVs account for 5583 sales, with that number likely to hit 6500-7000 by the year’s end.

With the arrival of Golf-sized ID.3 and ID.Buzz van in 2024, Volkswagen’s goal does look achievable – providing supply remains free enough, and the brand can convince punters to make the switch to electric power.

What new products are on the horizon?

To achieve bulk volume by 2030, Volkswagen is going to need more than a pair of medium SUVs, a small car and a van. The whole range will need an overhaul.

The anticipated E-Amarok will form part of the plan in the latter-half of the decade with its converted ICE underpinnings.

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But it's the 10 new vehicles Volkswagen global will roll out on its MEB platform by 2026 that will make the difference. Expect a Polo-sized BEV – likely called ID.2 – as well as large SUVs, and passenger vehicles in the works.

“As I mentioned, [Volkswagen] not only stepped up on the product side, but as you can see here by 2026, the Volkswagen group will have invested EU€52 billion in e-mobility. And by 2030, a total of six Giga factories will be in operation assuring that the pace of the BEV developments can be met with the supply of battery technology.

“Each of these individual giga-factories have the annual capacity of producing batteries to power half a million EVs”, said Beckmann.

After 2026, the MEB platform will, essentially, be done with for new releases, as Volkswagen has already committed to pulling forward development of its Trinity project.

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“We’ll be going into the future from a sedan BEV platform as well looking at the project ‘Trinity’... Trinity will be a very significant step up in tech, and will represent the crown jewel in VW technology offered as the first model with level four autonomous driving”, Beckmann added.

The Trinity project is also likely debut higher voltage electronics for faster charging speeds to keep up with Tesla, Hyundai, Kia and Porsche’s 200kW+ ratings, as well as more powerful and efficient motors with further packaging refinements.